Sky News Today

Sky News Today carried a Defence Insider virtual event on Ukraine, opening with whether the coming winter could decide the war and what might follow beyond Ukraine’s borders. The discussion focused first on Donald Trump effectively breaking his own sanctions on Russia; Michael Clarke linked this to the Iran war, US diesel prices and midterm elections, said it had become a political crisis for Ukraine and transatlantic relations, and argued Trump was pressing Kyiv towards a peace deal he described as a surrender deal. The guests discussed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refining capacity and retail outlets, Russian retaliation, and Clarke’s view that Vladimir Putin may seek to finish the war this winter at whatever cost, with Tim Mack saying Putin had to be forced to negotiate through economic restrictions and battlefield losses.

Tim Mack said Kyiv was already seeing some of the earliest power outages, with energy infrastructure damaged last winter not sufficiently repaired. He said Russia had expanded targets to bridges and internet service providers, and that Ukraine expected attacks on energy and internet infrastructure to make winter as miserable as possible and create political pressure on Zelensky. In response to questions, Michael Clarke outlined European air-defence systems such as SAMP/T, IRIS-T and NASAMS and Ukraine’s FP7 interceptor, saying it was far cheaper than Patriot and could work by next year with ground-based support from Germany, France and Italy. Tim Mack said he did not know what civilian toll might trigger direct European action; he noted proposals for a no-fly zone since 2022 but said Europe lacked the political will, with declining support in several countries including the UK, Germany and France.

Clarke said Ukraine could hold its ground on the battlefield if US intelligence cooperation continued, but that most ballistic missiles would still get through and Ukraine needed decentralised power, generators and water resilience, with Europe helping civilians through winter. The discussion then widened to possible Russian escalation beyond Ukraine: Tim Mack described hybrid actions testing NATO unity and questioned whether the US would back an Article 5 response, saying Russia lacked capacity for a large-scale invasion elsewhere in the near term but could still cause serious trouble; Clarke highlighted possible Donbas-like situations in Moldova, Estonia and Latvia. On intelligence sharing, Tim Mack said US help being slowed or stopped was suspected after attacks without alarms and that any sharing with Russia would be a scandal; Clarke said officials would likely refuse. On whether the war could become permanent, Clarke raised a Korea-style stabilised ceasefire while Mack said winter would not determine the outcome for Ukraine and that Western Europe’s response could shape its future role. Asked how he would run NATO, Clarke said he would support Mark Rutte in holding the alliance together while strengthening the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force and adding Poland, Canada and Germany.