Russia launches summer offensive, Ukraine targets Crimea supply lines

Russian forces have launched a new summer offensive in eastern Ukraine, opening a gateway to a larger swath of territory. The offensive, which targets areas such as Kramatorsk and Kosti Antonovka, is seen as a dangerous development, but analysts note that Russian advances have historically been slow and highly attritional. The fall of Bakhmut took over a year, and recent battles like Podgoroz have been grinding wars of attrition. Russia has suffered heavy losses and, for the first time in the conflict, is struggling to recruit enough soldiers to replace them, raising questions about the sustainability of the offensive.

Ukrainian forces are responding with a three-pronged strategy. First, they aim to make Russia pay a massive price for every meter of ground gained, increasing the attritional damage. Second, they are targeting Russia's ability to fund the war by striking infrastructure deep behind the front lines, with reports of fuel shortages, particularly in Crimea. Third, Ukraine is putting direct pressure on Crimea itself, a region many analysts consider the original catalyst for Russia's invasion. By targeting supply lines and communication routes to the peninsula, Ukraine hopes to undermine Russian control.

Despite these efforts, experts caution that Ukraine is not close to winning the war in the sense of completely expelling Russian forces from its territory. Instead, the conflict resembles a war of attrition where Ukraine's goal is to avoid losing and to grind the Russian advance to a halt. The current offensive appears driven in part by Russia's desire to be seen as on the front foot, especially after recent media reports suggested Ukraine was gaining the upper hand. However, launching a major summer offensive while diverting troops from other areas creates vulnerabilities that Ukraine is exploiting.