Ipsos poll puts Conservatives ahead of Reform as main opposition

An Ipsos poll has found that the Conservatives are now seen by more voters as the main opposition to Labour than Reform UK. The survey put the Conservatives on 35%, compared with 32% for Reform. The result is a narrow lead in a contest that has usually gone Reform's way in polls since the last general election.

The finding was debated at length. Supporters of the Conservative position said the party is back as the main party of the right. They argued that Reform's appeal is limited because its policies on borders, crime and immigration are now being matched by the Conservatives without the same level of division. One contributor said they would take Kemi Badenoch over Nigel Farage any day, and argued that Reform is finished. They pointed to Badenoch's response to comments about her children as evidence that she can be tough on issues such as immigration without telling millions of people they do not belong.

Sceptics said the Ipsos result is an anomaly. They noted that dozens of polls since the general election have shown Reform ahead and argued that voters have not forgiven the Conservatives for their time in government. They also said Reform has led the political debate on boats, the state, welfare and Britain's place in the world, and that parties on the left treat Reform as the real threat in tactical voting and by-elections.

Others cautioned against reading too much into the survey. One panellist said it was not a voting intention poll but a measure of who voters see as the leader of the opposition. They said many people still think in two-party terms and that the finding may not move the wider argument. They also said Farage is a generational politician, comparing his impact to Tony Blair or Margaret Thatcher, and that comparisons with Badenoch are unfair. Reform still has ground to catch up, they added, and Farage has begun a tour.

Further points included the Conservatives' record in government, which one panellist said means they do not deserve another chance. The same contributor described the poll as a snapshot and said a future event like Southport could change the polls overnight in Reform's favour. They argued that a Conservative, Reform or Restore government, or a combination of them, would be preferable to a left-wing coalition, and that some kind of deal between the parties on the right is needed. Another warned that the prospect of Restore entering government could galvanise opponents.

The poll does not settle the argument. It shows the Conservatives narrowly ahead on one measure of opposition status. The wider debate over whether they have replaced Reform as the main party of the right remains open.