Israeli strike kills at least 11 in Lebanon

Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon have killed at least 11 people, according to Lebanese authorities, in what is being described as the deadliest attack since June. The strikes hit a home near the village of Ansar, killing seven people, and other locations. Lebanon's president, Joseph Aoun, condemned the attacks, saying they were a violation of the ceasefire framework and sent a message about the US-mediated negotiations. The Israeli military said it struck a Hezbollah headquarters that had attacked and injured Israeli soldiers. Lebanon's prime minister insisted that all those killed were civilians. Hezbollah, which is not party to the ceasefire, has urged an end to talks. The attack raises fears of escalation and could affect broader US-Iran negotiations, as Iran backs Hezbollah. An expert said the ceasefire framework is fragile because it imposes no conditions on Israel and lacks a withdrawal timetable. Lebanese authorities say at least 4,300 people have been killed since Hezbollah launched a rocket attack in early March.

Lebanon's national news agency reported that one Israeli attack on a home near the village of Ansar killed seven people. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military struck a Hezbollah headquarters that had attacked and injured Israeli soldiers. Lebanon's prime minister said those killed were all civilians, contradicting the Israeli account. Hezbollah is not party to the ceasefire framework between Israel and Lebanon and has urged an end to talks between the countries.

The strike is the deadliest in Lebanon by the Israelis since June, when negotiations led to a reduction in tensions between Hezbollah and Israel, which continues to occupy a large part of southern Lebanon. The Lebanese prime minister said the targets today were not what he called military infrastructure. The Israeli military, for its part, said it was targeting Hezbollah positions because of actions Hezbollah had taken against Israeli soldiers.

There is a real danger that this could lead to an escalation, and more broadly, it could also have an impact on the deal that the United States is trying to do with Iran at the moment to bring an end to that conflict, because the Iranians, who of course back Hezbollah, have said that Lebanon must be part of any broader peace agreement. So when we have casualties like this in Lebanon, that could jeopardise that broader deal.

Randa Slim, the Middle East programme lead at the Stimson Centre, said the US-mediated peace framework between Israel and Lebanon is fragile. She said it does not impose on Israel any kind of conditionalities, it up-fronts commitments that the Lebanese government has to do in terms of Hezbollah disarmament, but it is not clear on a withdrawal timetable for the Israeli forces from South Lebanon, and it is not clear on what kind of penalties or consequences the Israelis incur in case of violations of the agreement. She noted that Israel has been violating the terms of the agreement since it was signed last June.

Slim said the framework cannot turn into something more enduring, particularly because it does not impose on Israel any kind of conditionalities. She said Israel is about now establishing an indefinite occupation zone of significant part of southern Lebanon, and they see this as being connected with the domestic politics of the country. To date, not a single Israeli politician has publicly advocated for an Israeli withdrawal of forces from Lebanon. She said it will be very hard for the Lebanese president, who is in charge of these negotiations, to continue to make the case for the negotiation to continue in the absence of any kind of tangible outcome on the ground.

When asked whether the Trump administration would put pressure on Israel, Slim said she does not think they do. She said there is a division inside the Trump administration on how they look at the Lebanon file. There is a group led by Mr. Rubio that looks at the Lebanon file as separate from what happens in the US-Iranian negotiation, and wants to keep it as separate. But then there is a group, including the vice president and the president, who look at Lebanon as being part of the leverage that the US has. So she does not see it likely as them pressuring the Israelis to do anything that denies them that kind of leverage in their own negotiations.

Slim said whether the strikes can be contained depends on what the American administration wants. The ceasefire between the US and Iran will expire, with the latest extension expiring this Monday. She said what happens in Lebanon is intricately related to what is happening in that file, but also to what is happening inside Israel in terms of the prelude to the upcoming elections. She said there are complicating factors that are not necessarily Lebanon specific, and hence the difficulty in predicting where this goes, whether it is going to be contained or expanded.