Alberta votes on starting separation process as Carney urges remain

Voting is under way in Alberta on whether to begin the process of separating from Canada. The ballot asks voters to choose between remaining in Canada and starting a process that could lead to a binding referendum on secession. The vote was triggered by a grassroots campaign that gathered around 300,000 signatures.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has urged Albertans to vote to remain part of Canada. He called the referendum a dangerous bluff and compared it to Brexit, which saw the UK leave the European Union. Supporters of Albertan independence say the oil-rich province has long been overlooked by decision-makers in Ottawa and that federal environmental policies have hindered its ability to develop its natural resources.

The province's conservative Premier Danielle Smith called the referendum but voted to keep Alberta in Canada. Alberta is the fourth largest Canadian province, with a population of five million. Calgary is its largest city. It has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world. Agriculture is also important and accounts for 16% of agriculture jobs across Canada.

Pollster Janet Brown said the idea of Alberta separatism has been around for a long time and that resentment goes back to former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. She said polling does not show the sentiment is growing, but it is getting louder. Polls have shown between 23% and 29% of people might vote to start a referendum process, while a majority will vote to stay. She added that Carney is the most popular politician in Alberta by her polling, and that he signed a memorandum of understanding with the premier to move energy development forward, which has helped keep separatist sentiment at bay.

Political scientist Ian Cooper said the ballot is complex, with 10 questions, and that Q10 is the key. It offers remain in Canada or start a process that could lead to a binding referendum on secession. He sees parallels with Brexit and said supporters are engaged in magical thinking, believing there are all upsides and no downsides. He said many voters may be seeking more leverage in future negotiations rather than outright secession. He warned the campaign could end in a shouting match and divide the province into remain and leave camps.

The debate has split families and friendship groups. One father said he voted option two because he thinks there should be a referendum on whether Alberta stays in Canada. His son said he voted to remain because that is the best way for Alberta to move forward economically and socially. Another resident said Canada is too big, that he has more in common with people in Montana and the western United States, and that the border should run north to south. But he also said separation would not solve the oil and gas industry's problems and he worried about what an independent Alberta would look like socially.

Cliff Alexander, executive director of Alberta Renewal, made the case for independence. He said the grievance dates back to 1905, when Alberta was formed, and that Alberta has contributed to Canada but has not been able to make decisions on its own. He said the choice is equal representation or a fair deal within Canada, or self-determination. Asked about devolution, he said more provincial jurisdiction could be implemented, with Alberta moving toward full autonomy like Quebec. He said the Alberta Independence Party received 1.2% of the vote in 2019, and that conditions on the resource industry, rising immigration and the cost of living have increased demand; he said between 20% and 50% could vote for option two today. No result has been reported in the coverage.