Israel election deadlocked as Arab-majority parties could hold balance

Israelis go to the polls next week in the first general election since the Hamas-led attacks of 7 October, three years ago. More than half a million people will vote for the first time. Polls put the main blocs close together, and many Israelis see the vote as a decision on the country's identity, security and future.

The campaign has highlighted a rightward shift among younger voters. Itamar Ben-Gvir, who was judged too politically extreme to serve in the army as a teenager, has built support among first-time voters. Polls suggest more than 16% back far-right parties like his. His message of more settlements, more weapons and fewer Palestinians is more popular with some 18-year-olds than with their parents. One young voter, Nadav, said 7 October was important to his choice. He had previously leaned left but now wanted someone who could provide safety, especially for young people going into the army.

Analysts say younger voters have been moving right for years. The war and the absence of a peace process have shifted the terms of debate. Annexation, settlement expansion across the West Bank, and after 7 October, annexation of Gaza, settlements there and expulsion are now discussed as legitimate options by people who came of age in that political climate. Opposition parties warn of threats to Israel's liberal democracy. They are trying to win first-time voters with new messages and younger candidates. A 24-year-old candidate with former prime minister Naftali Bennett, Yonatan, said Ben-Gvir understood social media faster than liberal politicians. Younger Israelis get their details from TikTok and Instagram. With polls neck and neck, turnout could decide the result. At a student event in Tel Aviv, protesters interrupted Ben-Gvir with shouts of 'fascism will not stand'. Young voters may be moving right, but they remain divided over who can keep Israel safe and who is an existential threat.

Arab or Palestinian citizens, who make up a fifth of Israelis, are also central to the election. There is a drive to get out the vote, and Israel's Supreme Court overruled attempts to disqualify Arab parties. Mistrust and hostility rose after 7 October. Arab Israelis said they were treated as enemies, arrested, or fired from jobs over social media posts or opposition to the war in Gaza. The government often frames them as a threat to the state's Jewish identity. At Radio Nas in Nazareth, one broadcaster said the impact could be summed up as racism driven by Benjamin Netanyahu's political interests.

All the main right-wing contenders rule out a coalition with the two Arab-majority lists. But the polls point to deadlock. There is no clear path to a parliamentary majority for either the Netanyahu bloc or the main opposition bloc. That could leave Arab parties holding the balance of power. The Joint Arab List says it is ready to vote with a coalition that ousts Netanyahu. Mansour Abbas, an Islamist politician who joined a previous short-lived coalition, wants to be in the next government. He says his approach is driven by a desire for influence, not just representation, and to offer hope to Arabs and Jews.

Gang crime is a main issue for Arab Israelis, with murders at a record high. In Jaffa, Ziad Samouni showed where his son Hussein was shot dead a year ago. No arrests were made. Arab citizens could yet decide who wields power in Israel, and many see the vote as key to their own future in the country.

In an interview, Aida Touma-Suleiman said racism had escalated after 7 October and become acceptable in Israeli society. She said Arabs were afraid in public spaces, including when speaking Arabic, and faced threats from gangs in their towns and from racists in Jewish cities. She also raised concerns about voting. She said the election committee had authorised people to enter ballot rooms with weapons, and that Netanyahu and Smotrich had said 2,000 settlers would sit in Arab villages and towns inside the ballots. She said people were intimidated but insisted on a clean election where they could approach the polls in safety. She argued that Netanyahu's future was now in the hands of Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Touma-Suleiman said the two camps are almost equal and neither goes beyond 61 seats when Arab parties are excluded. If the change camp joins with Arab parties, she said, it would still struggle to reach a majority, making the Joint Arab List the kingmaker. She said her party wants to stop Netanyahu and is setting conditions for the change camp, which still says it does not want Arabs in the government.

The election remains close. The size of the first-time vote and the turnout of Arab citizens could both shape who can form a government.