Minister says UK not at war but faces greater threat than since Cold War

A panel discussion in Scunthorpe weighed whether Britain is already in a proxy world war and whether it is genuinely prepared if the conflict becomes direct. The question followed reports of drones over Ministry of Defence sites, an alleged security incident, and a cyber security problem that left about 32 government websites down. The host said the incident affected millions of websites around the world and involved attempts to stop attacks from state actors and others.

A government minister on the panel said Britain is not at war but faces a greater threat than at any point in most, if not all, of his lifetime, and certainly since the end of the Cold War. He pointed to Russia's illegal war in Ukraine and warned that a defeated Ukraine and an expanding Russia would encourage Putin to go further. He said countries sharing a land border with Russia are especially worried. The threat, he added, is not confined to eastern Europe: it extends to the seas around the UK and the Arctic and high north.

The minister described hybrid or grey-zone activity as state-sponsored terrorism. He listed sabotage, targeted assassinations, drone attacks and the mapping of undersea cables. He said the government is delivering the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War but must go further and faster. With a Budget next week and a spending review next year, he accepted there would be opportunity costs. Defence and the NHS were the likely areas to receive more money, he said, while other cabinet colleagues would face difficult choices. He argued that defence capability cannot be switched on and off, noting that some ships are on order for the next decade and that rearming and re-industrialising Britain takes time.

Asked about the website security alert, the minister said no government services had been affected as far as he understood. He warned that such incidents would happen more often, from foreign states engaged in espionage or sabotage as well as organised criminals. He said AI brings opportunities but also threats, and that conventional cyber defences must keep ahead.

A Conservative panel member said he did not think Britain was at war, but described recent actions as warlike. He cited the Salisbury Novichok attack on the Skripals and the polonium poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko. He said that had Novichok reached the water supply it could have killed thousands, and that the Litvinenko contamination forced buildings to be stripped back and an aircraft to be scrapped. He said there is no easy tipping point to define when such acts become war, and that giving a line would only encourage adversaries to approach it. Instead, he said, the aim should be to deter threats.

He called for more investment, including in missile defence, and promoted the Britannia Shield option set out by James Cartlidge. He said Kemi Badenoch has set out the need to reach 3 per cent of GDP quickly, and that getting there by 2030, as John Healey said in his resignation letter, is essential. He also praised a Commons Defence Committee report on the High North published that day, saying the mapping of cables is designed to threaten future action if Russia wanted to cut Britain off.

Both panel members stressed cross-party unity on defence and security. The minister said it was important that adversaries see agreement, and the Conservative member said the two parties agree far more than they disagree. He linked the discussion to attacks on politicians in Australia and to the killing of two MPs during their time in Parliament, arguing for a serious and responsible political conversation. The broadcast was truncated after a further audience contribution.