UK crop yields fall as food price warnings grow

The UK's harvest of key cereal crops has come in well below average after a summer of extreme heat and drought, official figures show, and farmers and food businesses are warning that the effects will reach the checkout.

The harvest report cited by broadcasters shows spring barley, used in brewing, down 17%; oats, used for livestock feed and human cereals, down 14%; and winter wheat, used in flour, down 11% on five-year averages. Oilseed rape, used in cooking oils, bucked the trend and was up 19%. On some farms the losses are sharper. A potato farm in Yorkshire reported yields 20 to 30% down, with quality also hit. A West Yorkshire arable farmer who expected 9 tonnes of wheat per hectare got 7.5 tonnes for the second year running. In Gloucestershire, wheat farmers said they were 40 to 50% down on expectations. One regional report described the wheat crop as the smallest on record. A grain store in Wakefield had empty spaces where grain should have been.

The damage was not only about volume. Crops were smaller and more misshapen, with one food firm handling 474,000 kilograms more misshapen produce than usual. Sweet potatoes were swirly, cucumbers curly and butternut squash tiny. Apples had more small dots, and some produce was scarred after an increase in pests. The firms stressed the food was still nutritious and tasty.

Farmers said input costs for fertiliser, chemicals and fuel had risen while yields fell. One farmer calculated a loss of about £300 per hectare in income, even before higher costs. Dairy farmers in the West Country spent around £100,000 buying feed over the summer after grass stopped growing. A bakery that uses a tonne and a half of flour a month was told flour prices would rise by 10% in October, adding to higher costs for butter, milk, cream, sugar and electricity.

Food price inflation is predicted to rise towards 4% by Christmas and over 6% by next summer. The government said it was helping to keep prices down by suspending some food import tariffs and supporting farmers. Supermarkets said they had plans to prevent price surges. Farmers warned that relying more on imports would leave the UK exposed to price shocks, with one describing food security as national security.

The pressure comes against a wider backdrop. Drought in Europe and the war in Ukraine have pushed up global agricultural commodity prices. Diesel costs are also rising, with prices on track to reach a record high, and hauliers say they have little choice but to pass on the extra cost. Some crops may offer a way forward: oilseed rape yields rose this year and is seen as more able to cope with unsettled weather. But for many farmers, this year has been another costly and uncertain season, and consumers are expected to feel the impact in shops and bills.