Mahmood's indefinite leave plan in retreat as Home Office drops key date

Shabana Mahmood's plan to extend the qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain is in retreat after Cabinet ministers refused to back it publicly and the Home Office removed a scheduled announcement date.

The Home Secretary has proposed doubling the standard wait for indefinite leave to remain from five years to ten years. Health and social care visa holders could face a wait of up to 15 years. Mahmood has argued that the change would save money. She estimated that the lifetime cost to the taxpayer for the first 200,000 people qualifying for ILR would be £10 billion. Critics have put the potential lifetime cost of the wider cohort much higher, with one estimate of up to £200 billion over the lifetime of more than two million people who could qualify by 2030.

The row is tied to the so-called Boris wave, the large numbers of people who came to the UK under earlier visa routes. Critics say many are low-paid or dependent and that the cost of settlement will fall on working people. Supporters of the change say extending the wait is a reasonable response. Opponents say most migrants contribute and that the 15-year route for care workers is unfair.

Cabinet backlash Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh was asked directly whether she supported a 15-year wait for permanent residency and would not give a clear yes. She said the Home Secretary was consulting and would set out the government's final position. Up to 100 Labour backbenchers are reported to have reservations. Angela Rayner has also been critical. In a studio discussion, a Conservative guest said senior Cabinet ministers were briefing against each other, naming Rayner and Fahnbulleh. A former Conservative attorney general claimed Mahmood lacked Number 10 support. A former Tony Blair adviser said she was out of tune with a softer-left government.

Unison clash Talks between Mahmood and Unison officials reportedly broke down after she refused to allow a migrant care worker to attend a meeting. Unison general secretary Andrea Egan called the proposals "nasty" and said the failure to engage with migrant workers was unacceptable. Panelists argued that care workers look after elderly and vulnerable people and should not be told their contribution is worthless. One caller said they were three years into the five-year route and could not plan for their child's future.

Legal and parliamentary problems Critics say applying a longer wait to people already in the UK could be retrospective. Supporters of the policy say the state has executive authority over the right to remain and that this is a change of policy, not law. Government lawyers have reportedly been concerned about legal challenge. One contributor claimed primary legislation would be needed and that Labour MPs would not vote for it. The government already struggled to pass welfare reforms with a large majority, and the same arithmetic problem could apply here.

Current status The Home Office's Immigration Change Landscape document had listed 14 October for a Home Secretary statement on the changes. That date has been removed and no replacement has been put in. The consultation ended in mid-February and the department says it is still reviewing responses. The plan has not been formally dropped, but the timetable has gone and the Cabinet has not united behind it. Mahmood's opponents say she cannot get it through Parliament. Her defenders say the consultation is still live and the final position has not been set.