Swinney says independence is 'very close' as SNP conference closes

John Swinney has closed the SNP's annual conference in Aberdeen by telling members that the stars are aligning for Scottish independence and that the referendum campaign has already begun. In his first conference speech since the SNP won a fifth successive Holyrood election in May, the First Minister said 2026 had been a turning point and that Scotland was ready for independence.

Mr Swinney said nationalist first ministers now led Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland after his pact with Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein, and claimed unionists in Westminster were united in their panic. He argued that Westminster parties were weaker than ever and that support for independence was leading in poll after poll, citing one survey at 54%. Other reporting put support at around 50% and noted that independence ranked low among voters' priorities, with one pollster placing it 12th overall and third among SNP supporters.

His speech was a retort to Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who visited Scotland during the conference and offered cooperation on devolution, including possible Department for Work and Pensions employment support, while saying power should move from Holyrood to local communities. Mr Burnham has said constitutional debate is a waste of time and has rejected a second independence referendum. The SNP argued he had not explicitly ruled one out during this parliament when questioned, and that his willingness to reopen the Brexit debate exposed a double standard.

Mr Swinney wants a referendum before the end of the parliamentary term, by 2031. He invited Mr Burnham to the conference to discuss the timing and said Mr Burnham could only prove he would not be the last UK prime minister by allowing a vote. Mr Burnham did not attend the conference, though SNP figures said he had been issued a pass. He wrote to Mr Swinney later saying the subject was off limits, after appearing at Prime Minister's Questions to acknowledge circumstances in which a referendum could be legitimate.

The SNP launched Choose Scotland, described as its biggest independence campaign since 2014. It aims to contact 1.5 million people by doorsteps and online, with billboards and a possible party political broadcast, and to work with other pro-independence groups. Mr Swinney also promised to extend the £2 bus fare cap across Aberdeen and the north east, bring buses under public control before the next Holyrood election, introduce a bill to make misogyny a specific criminal offence before the summer recess, fund community groups against racism and the far right, and spend £1 million educating boys and young men about the dangers they can pose to women and girls. Conference passed a motion calling for a UK-wide ban on X and urged the Scottish government to stop using it.

Mr Swinney repeatedly accused Mr Burnham's government of eroding pensions by changing the triple lock, claiming Scottish pensioners would lose out by £2,000 a year. Interviewers and the Institute for Fiscal Studies disputed his claim that pensioners would lose their pensions, saying the change would slow increases rather than cut payments. Mr Swinney defended his language and said the SNP would keep the triple lock. He also faced questions about the jailing of former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell for embezzlement, saying the conduct was criminal and had damaged the party, and about transport secretary Stephen Flynn not knowing about a ferry gas leak.

On oil and gas, Mr Swinney said the UK government must decide whether Rosebank and Jackdaw pass a carbon test, arguing approval could be rational if emissions were lower than importing fuel. The SNP's position marked a shift from its previous presumption against new licences. A SNP minister said an independent Scotland would be a non-nuclear NATO member with a maritime defence focus, and claimed it could protect North Atlantic assets better than the UK.

Closing the conference, Mr Swinney said: Scotland is no city, we are no region, we are a nation and soon we will be an independent nation. He added that the referendum campaign on Scottish independence had already begun. Both he and Mr Burnham are now trying to win hearts, but the legal power to hold a referendum still rests with the UK government.