Public perception of crime diverges sharply from official statistics, study finds
A King's College London study shows people overestimate crime rates and misunderstand offender demographics, with Reform UK supporters holding the most inaccurate views.
The Full Story
A plain summary built from the channels that reported this story.
A new study from King's College London has found that public perception of crime in England and Wales is significantly out of step with official statistics. The research, which surveyed thousands of people, reveals that most people believe crime has risen in recent years, when official figures show the opposite. It also found widespread misunderstanding of key crime-related facts, including victimisation rates, the ethnicity of offenders, and prison population demographics.
One of the most striking examples is public estimation of victimisation. When asked what share of the population experienced crime between 2024 and 2025, the median guess was 30%. The actual figure is below 10%, meaning the public overestimated the rate by three times. Similarly, respondents thought 25% of the prison population were foreign nationals, while the real figure is 12%.
The study also examined how political affiliation relates to these misperceptions. While the researchers stressed that misunderstandings are not confined to any single party, they found that supporters of Reform UK were often the clearest outliers. For instance, Reform supporters tended to believe that ethnic minorities make up 70% of those convicted of murder, a figure that is double the actual proportion.
Professor Bobby Duffy, one of the researchers behind the study, said the gap between perception and reality is a genuine problem. He argued that while people are entitled to their own opinions about crime and what should be done about it, they cannot have their own facts. He warned that an overblown sense of fear of crime can damage quality of life, as people restrict their activities more than is sensible. He also said that better communication of the real statistics is needed so that policy can be built on accurate information.
The study highlights a persistent challenge for policymakers and the media: how to correct widespread misconceptions without dismissing legitimate concerns. As Professor Duffy noted, there is no easy solution, but a more honest and accurate public conversation about crime is essential.
On screen
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Key Claims
Claims reported during this story's coverage, mapped by channel. Ordered by how many channels carried each claim.
| Claim | Sky News |
|---|---|
| Reform UK supporters overestimated the share of ethnic minorities among murder convictions, believing it to be 70%, double the real figure. | |
| The public overestimated the proportion of foreign nationals in the prison population, believing it to be 25% against an actual 12%. | |
| The public overestimated the proportion of people who were victims of crime in 2024-2025, guessing 30% when the actual figure is below 10%. |
Channel Perspectives
What each channel focused on, with key quotes.
Sky News focused on the core findings of the King's College London study, particularly the disconnect between public beliefs and official crime data. The report highlighted specific statistical errors made by the public, such as overestimating victimisation rates and the proportion of foreign nationals in prison. It also gave notable attention to the political dimension, singling out Reform UK supporters as the most likely to hold extreme misperceptions, and included expert commentary from Professor Bobby Duffy on the social consequences of these misperceptions.
- “It found that essentially the public is wrong on a lot of crime statistics, how many people fell victims, are victims of crime, the ethnicity of offenders, if police numbers are going up or down.”
- “Reform UK supporters are often the clearest outliers.”
- “We can have our own opinions about crime and the trends in it and what we should do as a result of that, but we can't have our own facts”
Broadcast Timeline
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