Kansas Senate race tightens two weeks before US midterms

With two weeks to go before the US midterms, the Kansas Senate race has become an unexpected battleground. The seat was not high on the list of competitive races until a few weeks ago, when it moved from solid Republican to lean Republican and then to a toss-up. Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is running for re-election and is being challenged by Democrat Adam Hamilton. Polls have the two men neck and neck, or at least within the margin of error, and both parties' internal polling is said to show a close race.

The shift has brought a flood of money into Kansas, much of it for political advertising, and Democrats are putting in effort because they believe the seat can be flipped. A Democratic win would be a major victory for the party and a setback for President Donald Trump's legacy. It would also be unusual: Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

Control of the Senate is tight. Republicans hold it by 53 seats to 47. Only about a third of Senate seats are up in each election cycle because senators serve six-year terms. Democrats need to win three seats, and preferably four, to take control. That math explains why a state like Kansas is suddenly in play.

The race is also being fought over Trump's economic record. Trump has described the US economy as a miracle, pointing to job creation, lower prices and higher incomes. The figures give him some support. Since the end of 2024, just before he entered the White House, US GDP has grown by about 3.2%, a stronger performance than any other G7 country. But two factors are driving that growth: a large AI investment boom and heavy government borrowing to fund tax cuts. Both raise questions about how long the growth can last.

There is no sign that the overall growth story will be derailed in the next two weeks, though the stock market is jittery and AI enthusiasm could fade. Many Americans are still feeling squeezed by higher prices linked to Trump's tariffs and by the energy market blowback from the Iran war. Average household incomes rose to a record level of about $87,500 last year, but the picture is uneven. Economists estimate that the average household is about $1,700 worse off because of Trump's policies, including tariffs, energy prices, tax cuts and the removal of health care subsidies. The bottom 20% of households are about $750 worse off, while the top 1% are about $12,500 better off, mainly because of the tax cuts.